By Denzil Doyle
Having just completed 50 years in the computer industry ( I joined Digital Equipment Corporation on March 21, 1963), I would like to reflect upon some of the major advances in the industry during that period and to speculate on those that we might witness in the next 50 years.
As for the past, by far the greatest advances have been in the cost and size of computer memory. In 1963, Digital sold a computer called the PDP-5 which was unique in that it used both core memory (4096 words of 12 bits each) and transistors ( 500,000 bits per second clock rate) as opposed to drums and vacuum tubes. Additional memory could be obtained by ordering a “Memory Extension Unit” for $10,000 and 4096 word blocks of memory at $10,000 each – all in 1963 dollars.
Incidentally, the term PDP stood for Programmable Data Processor because the purchase of computers came under the jurisdiction of “someone in accounting” who was convinced that only IBM knew how to make computers and so Digital had to convince him or her that we were selling something other than computers. And the accountants took us at our word. They bought tens of thousands of them over the years at a typical system price of $30,000.
The early computers were not really used for computing at all, but for controlling and monitoring the thousands of digital devices that were coming on the market at the time –things like analog-to-digital converters, digital-to-analog converters, and digital telephone switches. The early computer research work was aimed at military applications such as ballistic calculations and code deciphering, but those applications were soon dwarfed by office automation ( word processors of the type I am using to produce this document) and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. The computers still did some computing, but they were being used more and more as network controllers.
Where we are going
As for the future, two application areas stand out as no-brainers – medical and homeland security. In the medical field, can you imagine two doctors in the year 2060 telling a group of recent graduates about how they used to perform colonoscopies using a sophisticated garden hose instead of a system based on the use of a robot that is swallowed by the patient? The technology for such a device is available today and the computer industry should be ashamed of itself if it does not make it happen within the next decade.
Another obvious medical application is the elimination of hearing aid batteries. Self-winding watches first came onto the market about 70 years ago and it seems odd that the movement of one’s head cannot be used to operate a miniature voltage generator mounted in the ear. With all of the reports that have been written on the wonderful things that nanotechnology is going to do for us, it is surprising not to see a mention of this application.
The mother of all markets for computers during the next 50 years will be the security market, and more specifically, what the Americans refer to as the homeland security market. It is becoming more and more obvious that in order to detect someone who is planning on blowing up an airplane, we must find out what thoughts are in the assailant’s mind and not just what is in their luggage. The January issue of Maclean’s magazine carried an article entitled “Mind Games” which described a system that employs a head band to intercept a person’s brain waves and uses the resultant signal to control devices like smart phones. As unattractive as it might be to wear a headband as we wander around airports, the terrorism problem has reached the point where society is willing to wear just about anything in just about any environment.
The computer industry has served society well during the last 50 years. Even though today’s problems are much more complex than those of years gone by, the business opportunities are much greater.
Image: Solar Feeds
Denzil Doyle’s involvement in Ottawa’s high technology industry goes back to the early 1960s when he established a sales office for Digital Equipment Corporation, a Boston-based firm that had just developed the world’s first minicomputer. The Canadian operation quickly evolved into a multi-faceted subsidiary. When he left the company in 1981, Canadian sales exceeded $160 million and its employment exceeded 1,500. In his next career, Doyle built a consulting and investment company,Doyletech Corporation, that not only helped emerging companies, but built companies of its own. In recognition of his contributions to Canada’s high technology industry, he was awarded an honourary Doctorate of Engineering by Carleton University in 1981 and a membership in the Order of Canada in 1995.
